Friday, July 11, 2008

USAF's Dark Clouds... and a Silver Lining

Both of you frequent readers know I’ve been saddened and chagrined by the negative press the Air Force has been getting in the last year or so, and a lot of that bad press was brought on by the Air Force itself. Things like mismanaging a multi-billion dollar tanker procurement, unknowingly flying “live” nuclear cruise missiles under the wings of a B-52 from North Dakota to Louisiana, and nuclear surety issues in Europe, all of which contributed to the recent firings of SecAF and USAF’s Chief of Staff. USAF is truly beginning to look like “The Gang that Couldn’t Shoot Straight” if you believe everything you read, and most of what you read in this space is fact, not opinion. But USAF is doing some things right.
Enter Mike Dunn, President and CEO of the Air Force Association (and a retired USAF three-star). In a relatively short piece published by the AFA yesterday, Mr. Dunn takes on the Air Force’s critics. His lede:
When a company doesn’t meet its earning numbers, it is popular to look at management for someone to blame. Over the last few weeks numerous articles and editorials have been featured in the press about the “downfall” of the US Air Force – a Service besotted with so-called systemic, cultural, leadership, ... and even moral problems. The way this story line goes is the writer bundles every perceived “wrong-doing” – often over many years – into a big package and applauds DOD leadership for firing the Secretary of the Air Force and the Chief of Staff. (“Everything” being tanker selection process, nuclear issues, lack of focus on today’s war, “next war-it is,” the number of UAVs deployed to Iraq and Afghanistan, officer pilots versus enlisted pilots, etc. Some media even add in the tanker lease contract, proselytizing at the Air Force Academy, sexual assaults at USAFA, and a host of others). Usually the author throws so much mud on the wall, it is difficult to refute much of what is said … and trying to point out the many inaccuracies only brings more attention to pieces which have titles like: “Clean up the Air Force.” Also, most publications limit responses to 100 words or less. And with so many items to refute, it is impossible to do so.
What follows is a point-by-point refutation of some of the criticisms leveled at the Air Force…not all, but some. Two key accusations cited in almost every negative article I’ve read lately concerns the availability of UAVs in Iraq and Afghanistan, and the ever-popular whipping-boy, F-22 procurement. First, on UAVs:
Third, the supposed AF bias against UAVs is often cited as why the AF is not paying attention. Again, the facts don’t bear this out. It is important to remember that it was the AF which embraced the Predator … this after the Army refused to field it. It was the AF which modified it to add anti-icing capability so it could fly in the winter over Bosnia, the AF which modified it to carry Hellfire missiles; the AF which designed and built the distribution system to ensure the intelligence got to the warfighter; the AF which repeatedly called for increased production and a second line. Every Chief of Staff in the last 10 years has sought increased numbers of UAVs – and it was the AF which fielded both the Global Hawk and the Reaper. The AF has 88% of its UAVs deployed to the AOR … this as opposed to the Army, whose Ops concept is to organically assign them to its fighting units – only 30% of which are deployed. And … the AF has beat the DOD requirement for 21 CAPs. They now have 23 CAPs – two years ahead of schedule. [For more see: http://www.afa.org/EdOp/edop_5-6-08.asp]
And about the F-22:
Fourth, is the AF’s strong advocacy of the F-22. This is true. The Service believes that the tasks given to it by DOD requires this advanced technology. We’re heard lots about why the AF should stop buying F-22s, but nothing about DOD changing its defense strategy to reflect a different threat set in the future. In fact, an attempt to do so was non-concurred by every member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff [see: http://www.afa.org/GatesApproves.pdf]. Moreover the critics often cite the expense of the F-22 and compare the performance of the F-35 favorably against it. Both are factually inaccurate. The F-22 flyaway cost is about $130M and it has a much better capability than the F-35. The more relevant question is what is the cost of all the conventional systems required to penetrate denied airspace to accomplish what one F-22 can accomplish? The answer is the F-22 is a bargain in that regard. Most critics don’t know it has an air-to-ground and intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance capability. Likewise most don’t realize the F-35 costs are likely to grow. [For a short tutorial on why we need the F-22, see the film at this site: http://www.afa.org/MPEG/Air_Supremacy.asp]. Secretary Gates says the AF has not even deployed the F-22 to Iraq with the implication that we don’t need it. The fact is that the theater commander has requested the F-22, the AF has agreed, and the Secretary has refused to send it forward … reportedly for fear of scaring Iran, but more likely because if he did approve that request, the value of the F-22 would become very obvious, validating the demand for the F-22. Further, this “test” of whether a weapon system is worthy is a false one. There are lots of systems which are not deployed in Iraq … e.g. nuclear subs, P-3s, ICBMs, etc etc. It is clear that the F-22 is needed for the future, and if we stop building it, we will wished we had not … much like we did when DOD made the AF stop buying the B-2. (Ed: links left as found)
There’s more at the original link in my second paragraph, above. There’s some stuff in Mr. Dunn’s piece I didn’t know, and I’m fairly well informed about things USAF (for a guy over 20 years removed from active duty, that is). Mr. Dunn points out that there are good things going on in the Air Force right now and the Air Force is indeed carrying its weight, perhaps more than its weight, in the nation’s current wars.
Even though “things” may not be as bad as they seem, my take-away from Mr. Dunn’s article is that the power struggles in the Pentagon are very intense at the moment, and are likely to get much MORE intense as time moves on. Perhaps not as intense as the Revolt of the Admirals, but pretty danged close. Except this time the shoe is on the other foot, and it ain’t all about one particular weapons system. There are serious “roles and missions” discussions going on right now in the Pentagon and amongst our most senior civilian leaders. These discussions will affect the shape and structure of our forces for the next 20 years and beyond. The Air Force’s most senior leaders need to make their case, both within and outside of the Department of Defense, for the importance and relevance of airpower in our present and future conflicts. I think Mr. Dunn’s piece is a good start.

11 comments:

  1. ooooooh wait til Doc sees this one! but then, he won't really comment on it until sometime in October.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Funny you should mention Doc, Jay. He's told me he's working on a post on this subject (in a comment to one of my previous AF-related rants). But you're most likely right... I don't expect anything critical from him until such time as he's officially retired. It's a "culcha thang." Not to mention The Law...

    But I really DO want and need perspectives on USAF other than those I read in the MSM. The USAF isn't well represented in the blogosphere, AFIK. There aren't any "Lex Equivalents" that I know of, anyway. A real shame, that.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Ok Buck, I'll throw down with Ya, but first, I got to know how you get your avtar up there with your comments!!! It took me nearly a year to figure out how to put them on over at Lex's place so PLEASE spill the beans for me!!!

    I'll be back later with my comments on the poor AF. I do think they get all the bad press right now some of their own making and some, well I think its become a case of kicking a good man while he is down syndrome.

    BT: Jimmy T sends.

    ReplyDelete
  4. http://www.blogger.com/profile/00595473108896212170
    Lets try this!!!

    First on what Mr. Dunn spewed. The Air Force was not the first to Arm the Predator, it was the CIA that did that. They were also the ones to push the Reaper version in fact they paid for that development and fielded the first units to go into the AOR. Another FALSE statement is that business about other services NOT deployed in Iraq I guess in defending why the F-22 has not made an appearance there. He states that nuclear subs and P-3's are not deployed yet the first Tomahawks launched there were out of nuclear subs (they are called SLCM's) and the P-3 has paid dearly for their service over there. Last year the Navy had to ground almost 1/3 of the entire fleet of P-3's because they are showing their age (3rd oldest aircraft in the entire Military behind only the B-52 and the KC-135's). Almost all of the grounded P-3's were in the AOR when they were called home to the bone yard.

    So, I have a hard time buying what this guy was trying to sell. I know the Air Force has taken some lumps lately some at their own hands, but lying about accomplishments or the lack of participation does nothing but stir the pot to those of us that know better.

    I am not totally in the tank for one Service or the other, I have two boys who serve today, one in the Air Force, the other in the Marines (ouch, I know it hurts more than you know as I was in the Navy for 9 years). But you can't have it all and that is what the Air Force seems to want. Like killing insurgents can be done with ONLY aircraft. Sorry, can't be done. We need it all over there.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Jimmy: You're right about the P-3s, wrong about USAF arming the Predator... they did arm it first. Or so says GlobalSecurity.org (here) and even though I hesitate to use the Wiki... I will. Mr. Dunn issued a correction via e-mail this morning about the P-3s, to wit:

    AFA Member, Congressional staffers, and civic leaders, sorry to hit you with another note so soon after the last one ... but I fooled around with the Piling-On essay for too long. That essay did have a mistake in it ... P-3s are being used in Iraq to help with the IED effort. Thanks to those of you who pointed that out.

    I know, and I'm sure Mr. Dunn knows as well, about the SLCMs. Apropos of nothing... I was involved in the bed-down of the Theatre Mission Planning System for the GLCM in the UK. That was one of the better projects I had while in the AF, and your use of the SLCM acronym fired off a few synapses that have been dormant for way too long.

    I sympathize with ya about your Marine! As you know, one of my boys is Navy... ;-)

    And I'm glad you figured the avatar thingie out, coz I have NO clue... my avatar just "shows up;" it was nothing I did!

    ReplyDelete
  6. Buck,
    I'll give that a read but I know the classified roots of that program (having worked a surveillance aircraft program for some 30 years) and am pretty sure the CIA did it first.

    I remember in the 70's all the environmental crying about the testing of the GLCM, how much a fit they pitched about flying an unarmed GLCM over the wide open, unpopulated Alaskan tundra. Very similar to the Crying they are doing now over the ANWR. The Cruise Missiles have not been used as much as they could have been over the years, but much like the F-22, its nice to have them in your bag-O-tricks when you need them.

    My young Marine is home right now, having completed a deployment to the AOR (claimed it was very boring, nothing to shoot at). He will be heading back to Pendleton later this week but will be stopping off to visit his brother on his way. I have been putting the idea into my Air Force son's head (my SN1) that he should try and get assigned to one of the UAV units and work on being a mission specialist or something. He did a lot of Model aircraft flying when he was growing up, I still have the 'remains' of several of his unfinished projects here in the house and I use his full size plans as a kind of decoration - wall paper. Looks nice.

    Talk Soon.

    ReplyDelete
  7. Interesting piece, but a little too rah-rah Air Force for my taste. I think the biggest thing that stuck in my craw was the comments about the troop surge really being an airpower surge. I wouldn't have had such a big problem with it if he hadn't tried to make it sound like low intensity warfare/COIN could (and should) be fought solely from the air. Just because airpower plays an important supporting role doesn't mean that it's able to act on its own.

    The same three things that Jimmy mentioned stood out to me as well. With the nuclear subs though, I suspect that what Mr. Dunn was referring to were the Navy's Boomers, i.e. the Ohio classes that are still SSBNs and haven't been converted to SSGNs. The situation with the P-3s is similar to the USAF's older C-130s: useful old airframes that are literally getting their wings flown off in support of the current wars.

    Finally, re: the Predator, I think the truth lies somewhere in the middle. There was a lot of cooperation between the CIA and the USAF in getting the Predator up and running, so it isn't a surprise that there might be some dispute over who did what first. An indisputable fact, though, is that without USAF interest (and money) in UAVs, they would have remained an interesting CIA sideshow, because the Navy and especially the Army certainly had no desire in the '90s to spend money on UAVs of the size and performance of the Predator, to say nothing of the Reaper or of Global Hawk. Something to remember is that in 2001 the Predator program was just starting to hit its stride, the Global Hawks that were deployed over Afghanistan were literally the first couple of prototypes, and the Reaper was barely on the drawing board. Without the earlier USAF investment, none of that would have been possible.

    ReplyDelete
  8. Jimmy: I apologize for the delay in attending to your comment; bad form on my part!

    Your young Marine's comments about things being boring in the AOR is a VERY good sign in my book. Please give him my thanks if he's still home.

    Your SN1 could do much worse than being a UAV mission specialist, to my way of thinking. I'm also thinking the USAF will have to come around some day and make UAV pilot an enlisted specialty... in some way, shape, or form. Knowing the AF as I do (or DID), though, I'm pretty certain the enlisted swine won't be trusted with armed UAVs, tho. That said, your son might benefit when the Powers-That-Be take a good hard look at the structure of USAF's UAV program.

    Mike: I noticed the same thing you did about Dunn's claim that the surge was an "airpower surge." Simply not true and most certainly over-stated. But Dunn's article wasn't all THAT bad, considering some of the anti-USAF stuff he was responding to. I'm thinking, specifically, of that doofus Farley's piece in American Prospect late last year.

    Interesting points about the UAVs, as well. Thanks for that.

    ReplyDelete
  9. Point taken re: Farley's piece. I dismiss stuff like that out of hand so I forget that some people actually take articles like that seriously.

    Everything I've read about UAV mission specialists indicates that they have the inverse reaction of the rated community. For every pilot that's forced to fly UAVs or stay in them longer than they want, there's a UAV mission specialist who's loving life.

    As for enlisted pilots, the answer is of course warrant officers. The job of UAV pilot is pretty much tailor made for warrant officers. A good community analogy might be the Army's aviation community, composed largely of warrant officers with a smattering of commissioned officers to fill leadership positions.

    Of course, that would require the USAF to bring back warrants, the chances of which I very heavily doubt.

    ReplyDelete
  10. Buck, Mike,
    That Warrant Officer direction I think is on the way for the Air Force. With all the pressure from guys with "normal" wings being basically grounded to do the UAV mission I think the WO in the Air Force is on the way. I know it was inconceivable only a few years ago in the Navy but they brought it back just last year. So, I am hoping that some one backs the idea in the 5-sided wind tunnel and pushes through.

    The point about the "air-surge" did not get past me. The Air Force has given very short shift to COIN for a very long time. A-10's put out to the Reserves and ANG's, the bastardization of the F-16 for CAS. It was part of the culture for what we called in the Navy "fast movers" , and their is no room for any thing else. (And the Navy is paying for those compromises with the continuing saga of the F/A-18.)

    I know the inclination is to win from the air but that is not possible with the kind of war we are in right now and what looks like the next as well.

    Too bad Nukes have such a bad reputation cause I would be throwing them into that region instead of our blood and treasure. What could it hurt, they are mostly in the stone age anyway.

    BT: Jimmy T sends.

    ReplyDelete
  11. Mike and Jimmy: On the warrant officer thing... I think Mike's right on this one. For some reason USAF has been adamant over the years about "no more WOs." I've never quite understood this position, because as Mike points out, Army Aviation has done quite well with the concept. The Army also uses WOs as OICs for some support functions, or at least they used to. I dealt with more than a few WOs during my sole one-year "joint" tour with the Army (USAF tenant unit on an Army post in Sinop, Turkey) in the waay-back.

    I hear ya about nukes, Jimmy. I've often had the same sorts of thoughts, just in passing. Tehran always has a starring role in those daydreams.

    ReplyDelete

Just be polite... that's all I ask.