Monday, July 13, 2009

The Latest Installment of My Favorite Soap Opera (Of Late)

We've been watching and reporting on the debate over the F-22 for quite a while now… even though we pointedly ignored the WaPo article referenced and linked in one of the following paragraphs… said paragraphs taken from today's (07/13/2009) AFA Daily Report.

Chicago Rules: Have you noticed the strangely heavy outbreak of bad F-22 news recently? The timing is convenient for F-22 foes; they face a do-or-die Senate vote this week, so any negativity is welcome. The bad news started Thursday, when USMC Gen. James Cartwright, JCS vice chairman, told a Senate panel about a new Joint Staff-led study—heretofore unknown—validating DOD's plan for 187 F-22s (not 243, USAF's requirement). Next came a punch from US theater commanders; as General Cartwright told it, they didn't want more F-22s as much as they wanted more EW versions of the Navy F/A-18. On Friday came a tiresome Washington Post gut job, titled, "Premier US Fighter Jet Has Major Shortcomings" (more on which below.) Among the story's sources: "confidential Pentagon test results," "Pentagon officials," "internal [Pentagon] documents," "The Defense Department," "a Defense Department critic of the plane," "other skeptics inside the Pentagon," "Pentagon audits," "two Defense officials with access to internal reports." Hmmm. Do you think DOD might have planted this story? Others have watched this spectacle and drawn their own conclusions. Weekly Standard blogger Michael Goldfarb on Friday posted a story noting how Pentagon leaders have been spanked by Congress on the F-22 recently. "So what does the White House do?" asked Goldfarb. "It goes on offense." It's what happens when you are not winning the argument on the merits.

The F-22, Bagel and a Smear: The Washington Post's putative exposé of the F-22 and all its shortcomings, printed on its front page Friday (and picked up as gospel by various wires and blogs over the weekend), was riddled with inaccuracies, according to the Air Force, Lockheed Martin, and our own investigation. The Post said only 55 percent of the F-22 fleet is available for missions "guarding US airspace," but as we reported recently, the F-22's combat air forces mission capable rates have been climbing slowly but steadily, and inlate June stood at 62.9 percent, according to Air Combat Command. On Friday, Lockheed Martin, maker of the F-22, said in a statement that the MC rate "has improved from 62 percent to 68 percent from 2004-2009 and we are on track to achieve an 85 percent MCR by the time the fleet reaches maturity," or 100,000 hours, which should take place next year. The company also said that the mean time between maintenance—the number of hours an F-22 flies before it needs service—rose from 0.97 hours in 2004 to 3.22 hours in Lot 6 aircraft. The Post claimed a figure of 1.7 hours. Direct maintenance man-hours per flying hour have dropped from 18.1 in 2008 to 10.46 in 2009, "which exceeds the requirement of 12," the company added. The Post used out of date figures from 2004-2008 when the rates were higher because the F-22 was a new system. The Post also trotted out the old school criticism of stealth that it is somehow "vulnerable to rain," but the company noted that the F-22 is "an all-weather fighter and has been exposed to the harshest climates in the world—ranging from the desert in Nevada and California, extreme cold in Alaska, and rain/humidity in Florida and Guam—and performed magnificently." The information quoted by the Post "is incorrect," the company said flatly. While the Post led its piece saying that the F-22 costs more to fly per hour than the F-15 it replaces, it didn't say whether it had factored inflation or fuel prices into that cost and neglected to point out that the F-15 has no stealth coatings to maintain. An Air Force public affairs spokeswoman said the Post did not contact the service for comment on the story before publication. The F-22 passed Follow-On Test and Evaluation Testing in 2005, and in FOT&E II, in 2007, USAF's test and evaluation outfit rated the F-22 "effective, suitable, and mission capable," despite the Post's claims that it "flunked" those evaluations. The Post attributed most of its information to unnamed Defense Department sources.

(Partial caption to the photo at left, above: "Here, four F-22 Raptor aircraft, assigned to the 90th Fighter Squadron, Elmendorf AFB, Alaska, fly over Andersen AFB, Guam, May 13, 2009. The F-22s, deployed here as part of the 525th Expeditionary Fighter Squadron, are supporting Pacific Command's latest theater security package rotation." [US Air Force photo by SrA. Christopher Bush])

And the Air Force's Take: The Air Force also objected to the Washington Post's loose interpretation of F-22 statistics, and the paper's portrait of the fighter as overly expensive, unreliable, and ineffective (see above). Generally, according to USAF's analysis of the article, the Post either used outdated data or exaggerated problems that have long since been corrected. The Post quoted a variety of F-22 glitches from Government Accountability Office reports issued seven years ago, when the F-22 was still in development. In a four-page rebuttal provided to the Daily Report of 23 claims the Post made in its hatchet job on the F-22, the Air Force dismissed the Post's claim that the F-22's stealthy skin maintenance issues are somehow due to rain, and the service said that the Post was wrong in saying the trend is that F-22 has gotten harder and more costly to maintain. "Not true," the service said. The rates "have been improving." The Air Force said the Raptor's cost per flying hour is not much greater than that of the F-15—$19,750 vs. $17,465—and the F-22 is a far more powerful and capable machine. The Post had claimed a cost of more than $40,000 per flying hour. Likewise, whereas the Post claimed the fleet had to be retrofitted due to "structural problems," this claim is "misleading," USAF said. Lessons learned from a static test model were applied to production of new aircraft and retrofitted to earlier aircraft; a normal part of the testing and development process. One problem the Air Force owned up to: The F-22 canopy's stealth coatings last only about half as long as they're supposed to. The service said the program has put some fixes into play and "coating life continues to improve." The Air Force also confirmed Lockheed's contention that the mission capable rate had risen over the years to 68 percent fleetwide today.

I find the title to the first item above… and the narrative therein… to be both interesting and appropriate, given the administration's geographical origins and political methods. This isn't the first time Obamanauts have either made up their own facts or taken things out of context to further their objectives, no?

And about that WaPo article… While I pointedly ignored it when it was published last week, our favorite former fighter pilot did NOT ignore the smear. Lex published a damned good and rather extensive essay on the F-22 last week… written with and from a fighter pilot's perspective… and he takes serious issue with both the Post and other critics of the F-22. His conclusion:

Tremendous maneuver advantages accrue to those that can sweep the air above a battlefield, and the F-22 does so better than any other design. One hundred and eighty seven is, however, too few to do so persistently in an away game.

Read the whole thing. The comments, too. They… the commentariat… are always interesting and informed over there.

12 comments:

  1. I can personally attest to the improvements in F-22 maintenance! Two VERY good buddies of mine are the F-22 OICs and have both told me the system is maturing and the mx requirements are becoming a "known" animal. As for retrofitting and modification...we're still doing that to F-16s on a regular basis and those mods aren't free! In the conversations I've had with F-16 operators, it's a hands-down given you're gonna lose to a 22. Sure wish the public could wrap their minds around the next war. Our "near-peer" competitors won't be running around in caves planting IEDs on the roadside as their primary method of inflicting damage. They've got sophisticated aircraft and anti-aircraft systems that need to be dealt with...and nothing does that like an F-22!

    My .02$

    SN1

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  2. Thuggish tactics is so very true from this new "Transparent" and "Open" Administration. The left has adopted the position that if they state their case enough times in as many forums as possible, regardless of the truth (in fact in some cased despite the truth) they get the public on their side. And this works e.g.: Bush Lied. The problem is gullible Americans being taken by the control of the MSM by the left.

    A crying shame and a true bellwether of the Communist/Marxist takeover of the country by the left.

    BT: Jimmy T sends.

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  3. On the F-22, well I have never been a fan of this aircraft mainly because of the selection of Lockheed to build it, I feel was flawed. Why NGS did not protest is beyond me, maybe the culture of the times back then but I think it was a mistake. My biggest fault with what Lockheed has built is the cost. Fighter aircraft by their nature are consumable. That is why we put escape systems in them so that we have a chance of getting the crew back into another one. At what point in time is one of these simply too expensive to build? The Air Force simply does not scare at the cost of anything and they go out of their way to hide the true cost of something they really want, when people start asking questions. And there are things promised that have to be added at additional cost that were trumpeted as necessary and vital and part of the package. Someone should have applied some fiscal sanity to this program many years ago and that is the biggest failure so far.

    My final thoughts - Threat Picture: Even projecting out a several decades, is there really another aircraft out there that out strips the F-15 in such a way that we need a generational change in technology to overcome? Could have make do with an incremental improvement or two (or three) over the F-15 and then produce them in a very large quantity? Is that not the basic approach to the F-35? I mean it’s not touted as generational and the Air Force wants what, 3000 of them? Of course that presumes having “Air Superiority” first but still and again what is the Threat.
    The F-22 in my book is as much a turkey as the F/A-18 is to the Navy. The only ones in NAVAIR that really applaud it are the ones who fly and buy them.

    BT: Jimmy T sends.

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  4. Our economy is going to hell and all I hear from the Government Media is that we need jobs and more stimulus.

    I have an idea; Why don't we have a build up of the Military like the early eighties? Lets try for adding a hundred ships to the Navy, Five more Divisions for the Army, Increase the F-22 buy to five hundred more units for the AF, and finally, lets add another twenty thousand Coast Guardsmen with twenty Large Cutters.

    Somebody will have to build all this, which will mean real jobs vs. McJobs. Next, someone will have to supply all the maintenance and parts. We could do this for about 400 Billion, (I don't know the real costs but neither does the Washington Post) and I'm talking real Union Jobs.

    Or will we just dump 800 Billion down the Health Education and Welfare which has no oversight or controls?

    The problem is that the Progressive Party feels that defense is a waste of money and resources, which could be better used as handouts and gifts for political support.

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  5. New Orleans likes your idea, Barco!

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  6. Buck: First-person narrative with REAL experience is a great good thing. Thanks.

    Phil: Musta been a New Yawka who wrote that headline, eh?

    Jimmy: Agree on your first, less so on your second.... specifically about the threat picture. It seems like the Russians have a widely divergent take on fighters than Our Man Gates, and this is the sort of thing the USAF is on about by demanding more F-22s. And, unlike us once again, the frickin' Russians have a history of exporting their front-line fighters to regimes that are less than friendly to the US. Think Iran... If we have to go to the mat with The Mullahs in the medium-future (less than ten years, more than six) it would be foolhardy for us to rely on our superior training... which is worth A LOT, btw... while putting our guys in aircraft that would be lesser performers than the opposition.

    As for the effectiveness of the F-15 vs. other airframes... Google "Cope India." USAF still hasn't declassified the results of Cope India 2005, but the "informed speculation" is USAF got its clock cleaned by the Indians who were flying SU-30MKIs. And that ain't the latest, state-of-the-art Rooshian airframe.

    And then there's the Chinese...

    My $0.02.

    Darryl: I like the way you think. But the frickin' moonbats are in charge these days, so every school kid in America will get a shiny new Mac ... or the functional equivalent in teacher and school administrator graft... while our education system continues to lumber into the muck. There's "stimulus" for ya.

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  7. virgil xenophon14 July, 2009 03:00

    Barco Sin Vela II
    (is that Darryl?--would kill to live his life--he lives the sailing life this AF guy wishes he had grown up immersed in--and here I live a bi-coastal life in both Marina del Rey/Venice Beach and New Orleans...thank God I have friends both places who own boats--in a way, considering the constant maintenance that goes with such a life-style, I'm glad I operate in the "best-boat I never owned" ownership-by-proxy mode--Tho I realize it's a labor of love for guys like dc cat)
    is right on the money with his recommendations. Only problem is that it's all too logical and doesn't reward
    enough of Obama's societal parasites.

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  8. Thanks, Virg- I do this for those who can't.

    My first ten years in the service I could only dream of the boating thing, just couldn't keep two quarters in my pockets.

    I think the U.S. population has been so dumbed down by the Federal Government and Local Agcy's, too, so that no one can seem to remember that we have the tools to be successful and thrive. No, we look for bread and circus's.

    Arrested Development.

    We are like children hoping to have a Daddy who will keep us fed and clothed.

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  9. Virgil: "Barco," Darryl, and dc cat are all one and the same. He's a man of many identities, he is... and sometimes I wonder if he's not in the Witness Protection Program. :D

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  10. Hey Buck; Not the witless protection program or anything nefarious. Not even Sock-puppetry.

    I prefer going by DC or DC Cat (dc was a beautiful Siamese Kitty who lived with me for ten years, back when I was boatless). The initials are easy and fairly rememberable. Barco is the name of the Boat and blog which peole can find me.

    My name got out there from my emails to you.

    That's my story and I'm stickin' to it.

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  11. Understand, Darryl. My personal preference is to use folks' real names (as I know 'em), unless they specifically ask me not to.

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Just be polite... that's all I ask.