The other two scenarios in this editorial are just as chilling, if not more so. And note the final sentence in the quote above. The Indians aren't alone... significant numbers of Americans feel the same way. Let's hope the folks who think Pakistan and Afghanistan must be saved have The One's ear. And that he listens.Which brings up a third scenario: A year down the road, US president Barack Obama capitulates to mounting domestic pressure, much of it from his own party, and decides to wind down the American presence in Afghanistan. The ISI tells the Taliban to wait quietly till the infidels have gone. And then move in. Bingo! We can all move back to September 10, 2001. The Taliban, with guidance from the Pakistani forces who are perpetually seeking strategic depth against India, gains effective control over Afghanistan. The Lashkar-e-whatevers and the al-Qaeda are delighted. The Pakistani army is happy that the security of the western flank is outsourced once again to proxies while it resumes directing its low-intensity conflict against India.
Unlikely? Perhaps. Improbable? No. Many Americans
are busy comparing their involvement in Afghanistan to Vietnam and asking whether it is worth any more time and effort. There are, however, others who are calling such comparisons nonsensical, since the two situations are entirely different, and are insisting that the stability of both Afghanistan and Pakistan is vital for the world to gain a respite from terrorism. New Delhi can only hope that the latter group wins the argument.
RTWT, as we bloggers say.
Buck, this is the one area that I think Obama really understood during the election, the real reason for anything we do in AF it what it means in PAK. However, he seems to be planning a new Vietnam style offensive, a hybrid of the Biden Magic Ninja's and COIN-Lite (the worst of both). Any gains we have made and paid with the blood of good Men this year will be lost and we will soon see White House photos of "The One" and Rahm picking out targets for those Magic Drones. If of course they get the UN's permission!!
ReplyDeleteBT: Jimmy T sends.
I find it hard to believe people still cannot see how what is going on in Pakistan won't spill into Afghanistan if we leave a vacuum them. It will be 9/11 x a thousand. Put simply: the fight for our very civilisation is occuring in that region and we need our Forces and the Pakistani Army to hold them at bay. There is no "win" in this situation. There is nation building. This about propping them up long enough that they can hold their own. It is nothing like Vietnam either. It is also nothing like Iraq. It may be tribal but the people do not want the Taliban either. I am tired of reading the increasing clamour for us to pull out. Even if that seems the simplest thing to do with the limpfisted Obama and Labour in charge, it is simply NOT an option right now.
ReplyDeleteYou should read Helmand Blog Buck they run some great posts straight from the men on the ground. We are making headway there. Our MSM simply don't report it. If you take that and add it to the nightly news where we witness the sombre Union Jack draped coffins returning home, small wonder the reaction is what it is and our leaders have cold feet.
Thanks for this post
'leave a vacuum there'
ReplyDelete'There is NO nation building'
that should say.
People are not thinking about the big picture; they are just tired of war. They assume it is all just a continuation of the Iraq war. The Media does not help any.
ReplyDeleteThe prime minister of India is very close with GWB. But the young professionals from India I've met love Obama (or they did a few months ago).
ReplyDeleteI think a lot of folks will be missing GWB's foreign policy pretty soon.
Jimmy: I know you read Lex and I pretty much agree with his take on the whole thing: it's politics above country. The Democrat way.
ReplyDeleteAlison: Thanks for the clarification on the "nation building" thing. I did a bit of a double-take. Well said, and I agree. I do read the Helmand Blog, btw.
Lou: That's the problem with democracies... we don't have the will to sustain a long fight and are easily worn down. The jihadis are counting on that.
Gordon: Everybody loves The One, no? :p
I think you're oh-so-right about folks missing Dubya. But it will take some folks longer than others... still others will NEVER "get it."