Huckabee? Huckabee.

There’s a whole boatload of opinion on Mike Huckabee today… not the least of which is Bill Kristol’s opening editorial effort in today’s NYT. Excerpts:

Now it’s true that many conservatives have serious doubts about Huckabee’s positions, especially on foreign policy, and his record, particularly on taxes. The conservative establishment is strikingly hostile to Huckabee — for both good and bad reasons. But voters seem to be enjoying making up their own minds this year. And Huckabee is a talented politician.

[…]

In general, here in New Hampshire he’s emphasized social issues far less than in Iowa (though he doesn’t waffle when asked about them). Instead he’s stressed conservative economic themes, seamlessly (if somewhat inconsistently) weaving together a pitch for limited government with a message that government needs to do more to address the concerns of the struggling middle class. This latter point seems to be resonating, as headlines in local papers announce an increase in the national unemployment rate amid speculation about a coming recession.

The point made in the second paragraph above needs to be emphasized. Huckabee is playing good cop to Edwards’ bad cop when it comes to economic populism, and I believe the message is working. It’s an unfortunate but true fact-o’-life that Americans…especially the middle class (thank you, Lou Dobbs, you asshat, you)… are uneasy and fearful about the economy. Edwards, on the one hand, rails against “corporations” and “corporate greed” and proposes draconian solutions that amount to not much more than “get the bastards,” primarily through punitive taxation. I, for one, am not surprised Edwards' message resonates with the union types, as the us-vs.-them mindset has always prevailed in that milieu. The message seems to be expanding into other areas of America, as well, and more's the pity.

Huckabee, OTOH, reminded the GOP this past Saturday evening (and again last night) that one of the party’s largest constituencies has always been the small business owner, and that group of folks is feeling put-upon. No other GOP candidate (with the exception of Ron Paul) seems to notice…and I think this is one of Huckabee’s strongest points. His emphasis on the core values of the GOP…small government (e.g., less regulation, less bureaucracy, cut corporate taxes, eliminate the “death tax”) and radically reforming the very tax structure of the United States (e.g., abolish the IRS and implement the Fair Tax) should appeal to the middle class. Personally I’m surprised at the dearth of press on Huckabee’s support for the Fair Tax. I’ve heard at least one pundit describe Huckabee’s support of the Fair Tax as “the only ‘Big Idea’ coming from the Right.” But that’s about it… (Insert my usual parenthetical comment about Ron Paul here. But I said “Big,” not “wacky.”)

But let’s continue with the outpouring of Huck-a-words… Power Line’s post is simply an extensive quote from Mark Falcoff, a resident scholar emeritus at the American Enterprise Institute and Romney campaign advisor. Excerpt:

If Huckabee goes on to win more primaries he will have a reasonable claim to the nomination. He may, of course, lose New Hampshire, New York, California and Michigan. But let’s suppose that he manages to win enough primaries in the southern and border states to make the results in those three states irrelevant. It’s all a question of numbers. In spite of itself, the party might end up with him as its nominee, and with it, heading down the shortest road to disaster since the Goldwater debacle of 1964.

Make no mistake about it: an electoral defeat of these dimensions would represent a major watershed in the history of the Republican party. It would be faced with only two possible roads forward. One is to become the party of the religious right, a sectarian agglomeration somewhat like the small ethnic parties in inter-war Europe, perhaps capable of holding some governorships and seats in Congress but never again competitive in a presidential election. The other would be to cut itself free from the religious right and seek to appeal to the wide and growing tranche of independent voters who are socially liberal but economically conservative. In that case the Republican party would gradually resemble some of the “liberal” (that is, conservative) parties who periodically win national elections in Western Europe or Canada. These parties are friendly to market-based solutions to economic problems—that is, they are broadly libertarian.

This line of thought seems to be prevalent amongst the GOP establishment, and is echoed in a column by Stuart Rothenberg at Real Clear Politics. To cut to the chase: Rothenberg sees an Obama blow-out if the eventual match-up is Huckabee-Obama. And I’m somewhat sympathetic to that argument. There are a LOT of Americans who are uncomfortable with the religious-right, if not outright hostile to them. Huckabee’s association with that element of the electorate, and the fact he is a Baptist minister, is an insurmountable negative in those people’s eyes… right, wrong, or indifferent. (see today’s memeorandum for much more on Huckabee)

So. I’ll admit to being impressed with Huckabee’s performance in FNC’s GOP presidential forum last night. My favorable impression has much more to do with Huckabee’s directness in his answers compared to the other participants. While it’s true Huckabee did his share of tap-dancing, especially when Romney tried to corner him on the overall effect of his tax policies while governor of Arkansas, he was much more straightforward than the others. My Boy provided the most strident example of evasiveness when he launched into an extensive summary of his tax cutting record as mayor of NYC when Wallace simply asked him if he supported the Fair Tax. McCain, Romney, and Thompson were no less evasive on all too many other occasions. YMMV (most certainly), Gentle Reader, but that's my take.

I like Huckabee. I just wish he were an accountant, or a retired general, or a CEO. That preacher thing is a BIG problem.

Oh. In case you’re wondering… I’m not switching my allegiance. Yet. But I’m much less than impressed with the field than I was last week, lemmee tell ya.

In other “Don’t Miss THIS” news, John Hawkins has posted his annual “The Twenty Most Annoying Liberals in the US” for 2007. With supporting video! I think we need to modify the ol’ saw about a picture being worth a thousand words. If that’s true about a pic, then what’s an incriminating, you-see-‘em-actually-SAY-it video worth? I’m thinking Master Card here… “priceless.”

Go have a look.