Israel

Have you looked at memeorandum today? I count 65 separate wire reports and blog postings on the current Middle East conflict. Sixty-frickin’-five. And while I have no delusions of ever seeing EIP linked on memeorandum, I’m going to subject you to Item Number 66 on this issue.

This is a difficult post for me to write, and a first, of sorts. I’ve never commented on the Israeli – Palestinian conflict, and there are a number of reasons. First and foremost, this conflict has been going on for so long (ever since the very day Israel came into existence, back in 1947) that it’s scarcely news; the conflict ebbs and flows, flares up and then recedes, as it has done for the duration of my entire adult life. The conflict also has every indication of being supremely intractable, i.e., there appears to be no solution. Secondly, I feel most everyone has an opinion on this issue, everyone has chosen their “side,” so any thoughts I have to offer will only elicit vigorous head-nods in one direction or the other. Unless, of course, you just emerged from a 30-year coma or have been living in a cave all these many years. And lastly, it’s difficult for me to collect my thoughts, given their scattered and fragmented nature, into a set of coherent statements. But I’m going to try.

Here’s what I know:

Israel withdrew from Gaza about a year ago, handing over complete sovereignty over the territory to the Palestinians.

In the year since Israel withdrew from Gaza, the Palestinians held general elections and elected a government run by Hamas, to the dismay of nearly everyone (the US, the EU, the Israelis) except the Palestinians. Hamas, as is well-known, has embraced violence as a means to achieve their goals, including suicide bombings and direct military attacks on Israeli territory. And Hamas continues to wage war against Israel. Case in point: there have been over 1,000 rockets launched into Israel from Gaza since the Israeli withdrawal.

The US and the EU withdrew financial support for the Palestinian government after Hamas refused to recognize Israel’s right to exist. Even under severe economic pressure, Hamas, to this very day, still refuses to recognize Israel’s right to exist and continues to wage a low-intensity conflict against Israel.

The current madness began in Gaza, when Palestinian forces (terrorists, militia, whatever) tunneled into Israel, assaulted an Israeli Defense Force position, and kidnapped an IDF corporal. Without embellishment, this was an incursion of a sovereign nation by hostile forces. Israel had every right to march into Gaza to (a) try and free the captive corporal and (b) establish a buffer zone to prevent further rocket attacks on Israeli territory from Gaza.

And then Hezbollah escalated the conflict by launching a raid into Israel from Lebanon and taking two IDF soldiers hostage. Israel is holding the Lebanese government responsible for the actions of Hezbollah and has initiated military actions against Hezbollah strongholds.

And here we are. It certainly appears this conflict is going to escalate into yet another full-scale war.

Why did Hezbollah get involved? Some say the Iranians, by unleashing their Hezbollah proxies, are behind the escalation of the current conflict. Chester has a well-reasoned analysis of this theory. He says, in part:

But even if Iran didn't set in motion the current crisis, there's no reason to believe it doesn't want to profit from it.

If Larijani is in Damascus, my guess is they're trying to keep Israel from declaring war on Syria at all costs. Consider:

-Syria is militarily extremely weak compared to Israel
-Iran is not only weaker than Israel, it has no easy method of threatening Israel, save with missiles of questionable accuracy.
-Israel can strike Syria from the air with impunity.

Now consider: from the Iranian and Syrian standpoint, the best course of action is to vex the Israelis as much as possible via their Hamas and Hezbollah proxies. So long as this happens, Israel does take the headlines, and the attention span at the G8. But as soon as Israel declares war on Syria, or commits an act of war, which might be the same thing, then events start to turn sour for the Iranians:

-Iran will have to declare war on Israel or risk losing face in the region, since it has pledged to defend Syria
-Syria's government would likely fall; what might follow it is anyone's guess; what does follow might not be nearly as close to Iranian interests
-Israel and the US have never fought on the same side at the same time, but Lord (and Yahweh) knows they'll help each other in other ways. If a three-way war breaks out, and Israel requested US permission to use bases in Iraq for strikes against Iran, even for refueling, the US might grant them their wish. Alternatively, it was rumored long ago that Israel had set up a deal with the Kurds to use Kurdish bases for strikes into Iran. The same might be true of Turkey, which has no love for Iran either.

Interesting theory, that. Interesting in the sense that the Iranians, and to a lesser extent, the Syrians, feel the time is ripe to provoke the Israelis and engage them once again. Interesting in the sense that actions by militant proxy organizations further the ultimate goal of destroying Israel. Interesting in the sense that Iran and Syria used to understand the US will not let Israel be destroyed. Interesting that the Iranians and Syrians (apparently) feel the US has been sufficiently weakened by the Iraq war that our intervention is improbable. I can further speculate this reasoning is no doubt encouraged by things the Iranian leadership read in, say, the New York Times. Public opinion, and all that.

All arcane conspiracy theories aside, one is left with the following question: Just how much can the Israelis take? Just how much should they take before they say “enough is enough” and unleash the dogs of total war? Israel is a democracy. Israel has built a successful and vibrant nation under the most trying circumstances imaginable. Israel has never launched a “war of aggression;” in the past they have only responded to their neighbors’ invasions, from the 1947 war, to the Six-Day War, to the Yom Kippur War. They have been remarkably restrained in their response to the Palestinian Intifada(s). All this in the face of implacable foes whose stated aim is the eradication of Israel, whose culture glorifies jihad and whose government (?) force-feeds the masses anti-Israeli rhetoric 7x24. The Palestinians do not negotiate in good faith, they do not want a peaceful resolution to the conflict, and they refuse to acknowledge Israel’s right to exist.

I repeat: How much can the Israelis take?

Update: 07/13/2006 1555hrs MDT. Haifa hit by rocket attack.

In its July 13 rocket attack against Haifa, Israel, radical Shiite Islamist movement Hezbollah likely used Fajr rockets that the group was thought -- but never proven -- to have received from Iran several years ago. In fact, rumor had it that Hezbollah had obtained both the Fajr-3 and the Fajr-5 rockets. Fajr-3 has a range of 28 miles, giving it the ability to hit Haifa from southern Lebanon.