A Sunny Sunday Morn...

Let’s hope he’s right…Fred Barnes, writing in the Weekly Standard, says Dubya has seen a “new” plan for victory in Iraq and intends to follow it. Not only that, but Mr. Barnes gives us a link to said plan: Choosing Victory, A Plan for Success in Iraq. The link is to an executive summary of the plan, where you will also find a link to a 52-page minimalist (meaning: lots of bullet points with few spiffy graphics) PowerPoint presentation (in pdf format). In the meantime, here’s an excerpt from Mr. Barnes' article on “the plan:”

It's not to be found among the 79 recommendations of Jim Baker's Iraq Study Group. The ISG report was tossed aside by the White House. Nor was the scheme leaked by the Pentagon last week ever close to being adopted. That plan would pull thousands of American troops out of a combat role and turn them into trainers of the Iraqi army. The result would be increased sectarian violence and an Iraqi army not yet equipped to quash the swelling insurgency-leading to a gap of time in which there would likely be a further--probably fatal--collapse of civic order in Baghdad, and then elsewhere in Iraq.

Last Monday Bush was, at last, briefed on an actual plan for victory in Iraq, one that is likely to be implemented. Retired General Jack Keane, the former vice chief of staff of the Army, gave him a thumbnail sketch of it during a meeting of five outside experts at the White House. The president's reaction, according to a senior adviser, was "very positive." Authored by Keane and military expert Frederick W. Kagan of the American Enterprise Institute, the plan is well thought-out and detailed, but fundamentally quite simple.

“Fundamentally quite simple” means, basically, operations to “clear and hold” mixed Sunni/Shiite areas in Baghdad. It means a surge in the number of troops on the ground, on the order of 50,000 additional Army and Marine combat troops. The plan anticipates an increase in the amount of violence being done to both Coalition Forces and Iraqi civilians as the plan is implemented and predicts casualties will increase.

There’s good news and bad news here. The good news is this plan seems a helluva lot more realistic than any alternative I’ve seen, including the (now) widely discredited ISG Report. The bad news is this plan is going to be a very hard sell to a Democratic congress, especially since (a) it will compete directly with the “bi-partisan” and heavily promoted ISG plan and (b) the incoming Speaker has indicated ending the war is her top priority. The Kagan plan also has its Pollyanna-ish elements, such as increasing the end-strength of the Army and Marines by 30,000 troops by the end of CY 2007, putting the military industry on a “war footing” to accelerate the replacement of worn out or destroyed equipment, and a direct appeal by the President to America’s youth to enlist and defend the country in a time of war and crisis. The issues here are money—this plan adds significant cost to a war that is already hideously expensive—and the President’s ability to deliver the crisis message, which he’s been unable to do consistently and effectively in the past. It’s gonna be a hard slog for Dubya and opposition will be fierce. Still…what’s the alternative, other than defeat?

If you missed it this past Friday, here’s the definitive comment on the Iraq Study Group’s report (What did the Iraq Study Group tell us?) from Charles Krauthammer. Excerpts:

The ISG has not just been attacked by left and right, Democrat and Republican. It has invited ridicule. Seventy-nine recommendations. Interdependent, insists Baker. They should be taken as a whole. "I hope we don't treat this like a fruit salad and say, 'I like this but I don't like that.'" On the basis of what grand unifying vision? On the authority of what superior wisdom? A 10-person commission including such Middle East experts as Sandra Day O'Connor, Alan Simpson and Vernon Jordan?

This kind of bipartisan elder-statesmen commission is perfectly appropriate as a consensus-building exercise for, say, a long-range problem such as Social Security. It is a ludicrous mechanism for devising strategic changes in the middle of a war.

[…]

He must do two things. First, as I've been agitating, establish a new governing coalition in Baghdad that excludes Moqtada al-Sadr, a cancer that undermines the Maliki government's ability to work with us. It is encouraging that the president has already begun such a maneuver by meeting with rival Shiite and Sunni parliamentary leaders. If we help produce a cross-sectarian government that would be an ally rather than a paralyzed semi-adversary of coalition forces, we should then undertake part two: "double down" our military effort. This means a surge in American troops with a specific mission: to secure Baghdad and (together with the support of the Baghdad government -- a sine qua non) suppress Sadr's Mahdi Army.

It is our last chance for success. Bush can thank the ISG and its instant irrelevance for making it possible.

Mr. Krauthammer must have read Mr. Kagan’s plan, because his (Krauthammer’s) prescription for victory is identical. Me, I liked his smack-down of Mssrs Baker and Hamilton.

Congratulations! You’re Time Magazine’s “Person of the Year!” Talk about a non-event media event. I remember when the whole frickin’ world anticipated the naming of Time’s Man of the Year (when did it become “person,” anyway?)…but that was back when Time was still respected and relevant. Doubtless there are those people who still believe Time is relevant, but you cannot count me in that number. I agree with Captain Ed:

Eh. So this is the year for the great huddled masses? Wouldn't that have been 1989, when the momentum of freedom and liberty felled an Evil Empire and tore down a wall in Berlin? Instead, Time selected Mikhail Gorbachev, and also named him its Man of the Decade for managing to take the Soviet Union into oblivion. The fact that they selected him over the two men responsible for forcing him into that position shows the problems Time has always had in seeing the long view of history.

At least, however, they made a decision and selected someone. The entire point of a Person of the Year is to acknowledge that some people play larger roles in history. Naming all of us may make us feel good about our anonymity, but in the end it's either pandering to millions of readers or a refusal to take a stand on anyone. Choosing everyone is an abdication on the entire purpose of the project.

What he said.

Here’s another lil something I was gonna blog this past Thursday, but forgot (of course): “Blogging ‘set to peak next year’.” The article contains a few ‘gee whiz’ facts that may or may not impress you. I was semi-impressed with these:

Gartner analyst Daryl Plummer said the reason for the levelling off in blogging was due to the fact that most people who would ever start a web blog had already done so.

He said those who loved blogging were committed to keeping it up, while others had become bored and moved on.

"A lot of people have been in and out of this thing," Mr Plummer said.

"Everyone thinks they have something to say, until they're put on stage and asked to say it."

Last month blog tracking firm Technorati reported that 100,000 new blogs were being created every day, and 1.3 million blog posts were written.

Technorati is tracking more than 57 million blogs, of which it believes around 55% are "active" and updated at least every three months.

100,000 new blogs every day? That IS amazing, ain’t it? YrHmblScrb thought long (over a year) and hard (ahem) before creating EIP. I questioned my commitment, to begin with, as in “Will I be able to keep doing it?” and was severely intimidated by the sheer abundance of high-quality writing in the blogs I was reading before I decided to take the plunge. The second point being that I really didn’t want to do something that didn’t “measure up.”

(Digression: There’s not a day that goes by when I don’t encounter another blog that’s thoughtful, articulate and well-written. But you can’t read ‘em all, can you?)

Well, I’ve answered Item One for the moment, what with going on for a year now. The chances are pretty good I’ll keep at it, with the occasional break for mental health reasons. As for Item Two, well…that’s for you to decide, Gentle Reader. It works for me.

Today’s Pic(s): Hangin’ out at the Drum Circle during Bob Marley Fest in Austin. Two days, 15 (or so) mostly local bands, all-day and into-the-night fun. Plus Weirdness! April, 2000.