Studies, Surveys, and Chilly Weather

Read this: 655,000 War Dead? A bogus study on Iraq casualties.

After doing survey research in Iraq for nearly two years, I was surprised to read that a study by a group from Johns Hopkins University claims that 655,000 Iraqis have died as a result of the war. Don't get me wrong, there have been far too many deaths in Iraq by anyone's measure; some of them have been friends of mine. But the Johns Hopkins tally is wildly at odds with any numbers I have seen in that country. Survey results frequently have a margin of error of plus or minus 3% or 5%--not 1200%.

The group--associated with the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health--employed cluster sampling for in-person interviews, which is the methodology that I and most researchers use in developing countries.

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However, the key to the validity of cluster sampling is to use enough cluster points. In their 2006 report, "Mortality after the 2003 invasion of Iraq: a cross-sectional sample survey," the Johns Hopkins team says it used 47 cluster points for their sample of 1,849 interviews. This is astonishing: I wouldn't survey a junior high school, no less an entire country, using only 47 cluster points.

With so few cluster points, it is highly unlikely the Johns Hopkins survey is representative of the population in Iraq. However, there is a definitive method of establishing if it is. Recording the gender, age, education and other demographic characteristics of the respondents allows a researcher to compare his survey results to a known demographic instrument, such as a census.

Dr. Roberts said that his team's surveyors did not ask demographic questions. I was so surprised to hear this that I emailed him later in the day to ask a second time if his team asked demographic questions and compared the results to the 1997 Iraqi census. Dr. Roberts replied that he had not even looked at the Iraqi census.

The author of this op-ed, Steven E. Moore, is a political consultant with Gorton Moore International and trained Iraqi researchers for the International Republican Institute from 2003 to 2004. He also conducted survey research for the Coalition Forces from 2005 to 2006. I’d say he has the experience and the credentials to know from whence he speaks. Mr. Moore closes with this comment:

Public-policy decisions based on this survey will impact millions of Iraqis and hundreds of thousands of Americans. It's important that voters and policy makers have accurate information. When the question matters this much, it is worth taking the time to get the answer right.

Hoo-boy, is that ever an understatement! I remember reading the survey, and the reactions to same, when it was released recently. It’s good to see someone step up and debunk what is obviously a flawed effort on the part of the Johns Hopkins survey team. I’ll leave the subject of underlying motivations/agenda of the JH survey team aside, but I’m pretty sure I know what they were.

This should give you a laugh… Human species 'may split in two' (or, “Slow News Day at The Beeb”)

Humanity may split into two sub-species in 100,000 years' time as predicted by HG Wells, an expert has said.

Evolutionary theorist Oliver Curry of the London School of Economics expects a genetic upper class and a dim-witted underclass to emerge.

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Physical appearance, driven by indicators of health, youth and fertility, will improve, he says, while men will exhibit symmetrical facial features, look athletic, and have squarer jaws, deeper voices and bigger penises.

Women, on the other hand, will develop lighter, smooth, hairless skin, large clear eyes, pert breasts, glossy hair, and even features, he adds. Racial differences will be ironed out by interbreeding, producing a uniform race of coffee-coloured people.

Well, following the theories postulated by this “study,” I’d say the process has already begun. Here in America we have Democrats and Republicans. The latter, of course, are mostly beautiful, intelligent and well-formed examples of humanity (with “bigger penises,” presumably). I’ll leave you to speculate on the qualities of the former, but rampant Bush Derangement Syndrome is bound to have evolutionary effects. Just sayin’.

What would we do without studies? US full of Internet addicts: study.

According to preliminary research, the typical Internet addict was a single, college-educated, white male in his 30s, who spends approximately 30 hours a week on non-essential computer use.

Oh…I’m OK. My computer use is essential and I’m waaay over 30. No prob. I think.

So, apropos of nothing, I’m speculating the weather is the reason I was so long abed this morning. It was 47 degrees outside when I woke up this morning and not much warmer inside El Casa Móvil De Pennington. I didn’t turn on the heat before retiring last evening/this morning. So, in other words, it was perfect weather/temperature to pull the covers up around my ears and drift back into sleep. Which I did, repeatedly. The coffee’s been consumed, the ‘net has been surfed (although there’s still much to be done in this category…it’s never ending), and the weather hasn’t improved a whit. A perfect sort of day to catch up on my reading.